Shanghai Aluminum has the possibility of further exploration

Views:1028 Author:Site Editor Publish Time:2022-07-10 17:17:58 Orgin:Site

share

Under the influence of the sluggish demand in the traditional market and the decline in aluminum exports, the pull of new energy vehicles and new infrastructure on the incremental demand for aluminum has been completely covered, superimposed on the rapid increase in the supply side, the Shanghai aluminum market will drop by 16,000 yuan / ton.

The resumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum production exceeded expectations, and the production capacity reached a record high. In terms of domestic supply, as of May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 40.882 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.463 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. From the perspective of provinces, Shandong, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan are the main producing areas of domestic electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 20%, 15%, 15% and 11% of the total domestic production respectively, and the four provinces (regions) together account for 61% of the domestic production. .

Since the beginning of this year, stimulated by the policy support of local governments and the decline of electricity prices in some regions, the resumption and commissioning of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has accelerated. As of May, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan was 4.76 million tons, an increase of 2.09 million tons compared with the end of 2021. It is the main area for the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum in China, accounting for 72.5% of all domestic growth capacity in 2022. Among them, an aluminum company in Shandong withdrew 200,000 tons of production capacity to replace its new production capacity in the Yunnan plant.

In the second half of the year, it is expected that the production capacity will still increase by more than 2 million tons, and the supply pressure will gradually increase. In terms of production resumption, it is expected that 1.35 million tons of production capacity will be resumed in the second half of the year, mainly in Guangxi, accounting for 58.4% of the production capacity to be resumed. In terms of new production capacity, it is estimated that there will be 1.092 million tons of production capacity waiting to be put into operation in the second half of the year, mainly in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi, accounting for 93.6% of the total production capacity to be put into production. Overall, there are still 2.442 million tons of new production capacity in the second half of the year, accounting for 6.0% of the current domestic operating capacity, and the pressure on domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is gradually increasing. In terms of output, because the increase in output slightly lags behind the increase in production capacity, domestic electrolytic aluminum output is still in a fast-rising channel, which has a restraining effect on the upward space of aluminum prices.

To sum up, in the second half of the year, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will remain at a high level. With the resumption and commissioning of surplus production capacity and the stable power supply in the southwest region, the production of electrolytic aluminum will enter a fast rising channel. Therefore, it is expected that the annual output of aluminum in 2022 will increase by nearly 2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, which will inhibit the upward space of aluminum prices.

Demand side: traditional market demand is slightly sluggish

The aluminum terminal consumption data in 2021 shows that the domestic electrolytic aluminum terminal consumption is dominated by real estate, transportation and electricity. The aluminum consumption in the three industries accounts for about 60% of the actual domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption. Aluminum consumption in other fields such as aluminum export accounts for about 40% of the actual domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum. At present, the increase in aluminum consumption is mainly driven by new energy and new infrastructure. Driven by policies, the newly installed capacity brought about by clean energy sources such as photovoltaics and UHV, as well as new energy vehicles, will continue to create incremental demand for aluminum.

The real estate industry has stabilized and recovered, with limited room for repair year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, in order to stabilize the economy, the state has introduced a series of policies related to real estate, but it still fails to change the adjustment trend of the real estate industry. In May, the newly started real estate area fell by 30.6% year-on-year, and the completed real estate area fell by 15.3% year-on-year. There is no sign of improvement in the sub-data. In the second half of the year, the real estate industry will continue to be affected by favorable policies, and there is a high probability that there will be some improvement, but more stabilization and repair. In the long run, due to repeated domestic epidemics and insufficient purchasing power of residents, although the use of aluminum in real estate in the second half of the year will increase compared to the first half of the year, it will be difficult to change the year-on-year downward trend. Based on the cumulative decrease of 12.6% year-on-year in the area of housing completed from January to May, it is predicted that the cumulative area of completed housing for the whole year will decrease by 5% to 10% year-on-year, and the demand for aluminum may drop by nearly 900,000 tons.